Reilly Opelka strides back onto one of tennis’s biggest stages tonight with a first-round assignment that few would envy and he seems to relish: world No. 1 contender Carlos Alcaraz. The American’s 6’11” frame and first-strike tennis make him a danger to anyone in best-of-five, but Alcaraz’s elastic defense and return game tilt most models and betting markets against the upset. Even so, oddsmakers expect Opelka’s serve to stretch the contest—some recommend the “over games” angle precisely because of his tiebreak potential. New York PostCBSSports.com
Opelka enters New York as one of the tour’s more intriguing comeback stories. Seven months ago in Brisbane he knocked off Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals, reached his first final since 2022, then was forced to retire just a handful of games into the championship match with a back issue—a jarring reminder of the injuries that derailed nearly two seasons of his career. That early-January week both showcased his ceiling and underscored the fragility of his return. Tennis Up To Date
The arc since then has been steadier. ESPN’s year-to-date ledger has Opelka at 23–17 in 2025, a marked improvement on his abbreviated 2024, and the ATP’s official rankings page shows him hovering in the mid-60s this month—real traction after his long layoff. Results like an Eastbourne win to open the grass swing, plus solid showings on hard courts, have helped rebuild both points and confidence. ESPN.comATP Tour
Stylistically, there’s no mystery about what Opelka brings: pace, trajectory, and scoreboard pressure. His height isn’t just a headline; it changes returner geometry, particularly on deuce-court wide serves and body-serve kickers. It’s why the visual of him looming over Alcaraz in practices and promos has ricocheted around social feeds as the tournament opens. Expect the American to lean into serve-plus-one patterns, look for short forehands, and accept that many rallies will end on the third or fourth ball. Hindustan Times
Behind the scenes, Opelka’s camp has also evolved. A January feature on ATPTour.com highlighted the addition of Denis Kudla to the traveling team and framed Opelka’s resurgence as a product of finally having pain-free practice blocks. Kudla’s message—that Opelka can climb fast once healthy because his weapons scale anywhere—has become a quiet theme of the season.
New York will offer Opelka more than singles this fortnight. In a crowd-pleasing twist, tournament organizers awarded a mixed-doubles wild card to Opelka and seven-time major champion Venus Williams, a pairing that promises packed outside courts and a different kind of rhythm work for the American’s return game and net instincts. Even critics of mixed-doubles relevance concede the reps could sharpen his feel in short-hop exchanges—useful if he finds himself drawn forward against Alcaraz. US Open
Tactically tonight, Opelka’s path is narrow but clear. First-serve percentage must live north of his season average, second-serve points need protection (body serves, surprise sliders), and he’ll want to ration backhand risk while hunting forehands from the ad court. For Alcaraz, the job is to make returns that land at Opelka’s feet, elongate patterns when possible, and turn Opelka’s approach balls into passing-shot auditions. The betting preview consensus: Alcaraz is the rightful favorite, but Opelka’s serve should create at least one breaker and could turn a set or two into coin flips. New York Post
As for timing, opening-round coverage is rolling across U.S. networks and live blogs, with the Alcaraz-Opelka match drawing primetime attention. If the night session pace holds, the two should command a stadium atmosphere—and the kind of adrenaline that historically lifts big servers’ first-strike accuracy. Keep an eye on live tickers for momentum swings; in these serve-dominated scripts, a single loose game can rewrite a set. CBSSports.comVAVEL.com – Live Sports
Whatever the scoreline tonight, Opelka’s 2025 already reads like proof of concept. He started the year reminding the sport that his ceiling includes top-10 scalps; he weathered an untimely retirement; he pushed his ranking back into the mix; and he arrives in New York with enough form to make even the best in the world uncomfortable for stretches. For a player who once wondered if pain would let him compete at all, that’s newsworthy progress—and it makes his US Open opener must-watch tennis. Tennis Up To DateATP Tour
Key facts at a glance: Season record (2025): 23–17; current ATP ranking: mid-60s; Brisbane run: upset of Djokovic en route to final, retired in title match; US Open mixed doubles: wild card with Venus Williams.